The Importance of Regime Change in Iran
It’s been 40 years since the Iranian revolution destabilized the sphere of influence once maintained by the U.S. in the Middle East. Prior to becoming the repressive authoritative theocracy it is today, Iran remained America’s most trustworthy regional ally throughout the 60s and 70s. However, for nearly four decades, the Iranian regime has steadily acted with aggression throughout Central Asia, allowing Iran to attain regional hegemony. If left unchecked, Iran will undoubtedly continue to use nuclear proliferation to legitimize their existence in the global arena, threatening U.S. interest in several ways. Because of the risks that an emboldened Iran poses to the international order, the U.S. has no choice but to seek and support a regional coalition of moderate Shiites and Sunnis, with the ultimate goal of initiating regime change in Iran. The geopolitical landscape of the world has changed since the Cold War. State actors do not need to achieve global supremacy to become a relevant threat. As long as Iran falls under the leadership of radical mullahs, they will continue to assert reckless behavior and antagonize American allies, each time more aggressively than before.
While political leaders should never endorse any action that fails to acknowledge the costs as well as the benefits of foreign policy, deviating away from the traditional principles that have kept Americans safe for so long could undermine the balance of power. If America doesn’t assert its leadership in certain geo-politically strategic locations around the world, the Chinese or Russians will gladly fill the void, and that could realign the spheres of influence, creating an even greater security risk. Nevertheless, any action undertaken by a U.S. initiated alliance should be shouldered by a local faction of affiliates from the Gulf Arab region, the moderate wing of the Iranian government, and a grassroots coalition of tribal Shiites from both Iran and Iraq. The one issue that could potentially help stabilize the sectarian divide fueling these proxy wars is contingent on convincing the majority of Iranians that they would experience more prosperity and peace through regime change.
No one denies the plethora of security issues that have come to characterize the Middle East, but supporting Democracy in Iran would seemingly reduce these components of danger. For the past several years, Iran has stretched its influence throughout the region. They continue to maintain support for Shiite militias in Palestine and Lebanon, where Hamas and Hezbollah pose a constant threat to Israel, as well as the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen. They maintain a strong area of influence in Iraq and Syria. Because of Iran’s belligerence, Sunni Arabs have looked for American leadership in responding to Iranian aggression. In the absence of support, moderate Sunnis will choose to gravitate toward extremist groups like ISIS and Al Nusra, rather than pledging to the authority of Iranian-affiliated state actors. This was evident back in 2015 when the Russians came into Syria unchallenged, in order to prop up the Assad regime, essentially bolstering Iran. Afterward, not only did Russia’s actions alter the dynamics in the Middle East, but it also created dissension among the U.S. and its traditional Sunni allies, who eventually turned toward radical extremists for protection, rather than becoming absorbed into a corrupt Shiite-backed Iranian government.
Thus, since Iran continues to incite tension in the area, the challenge to U.S. foreign policymakers has been and continues to be the ability to navigate through the minutia of conflicts brought about by the sectarian divide between the tribal Sunni and Shia, who have not only been fighting one another, but other Sunni insurgency groups as well. Ultimately, it is understandable for Americans to be hesitant about intervention abroad, but isolationism isn’t what propelled the U.S. to global dominance. Likewise, regime change in Iran could potentially resolve the many security concerns that plague the region, by bringing together the two moderate sectarian factions in their common fight against radical extremism. Remember the old adage: an enemy of an enemy is a friend. No where is this truer than in the Middle East.
